JOURNAL OF NANJING FORESTRY UNIVERSITY ›› 2017, Vol. 41 ›› Issue (04): 25-29.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-2006.201608010

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MaxEnt model-based identification of potential Cyclocarya paliurus cultivation regions

LIU Qingliang1, 2, LI Yao1, 3, FANG Shengzuo1, 2*   

  1. 1.Co-Innovation Center for the Sustainable Forestry in Southern China, Nanjing 210037, China;
    2. College of Forestry, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing 210037, China;
    3. College of Biology and the Environment, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing 210037, China
  • Online:2017-08-18 Published:2017-08-18

Abstract: 【Objective】Cyclocarya paliurus is a valuable tree species that is used for commercial timber, medicine and landscaping. Using percent contribution value, permutation replacement important values and the Jackknife test, the main factors affecting the geographical distribution of C. paliurus were evaluated, in order to provide a theoretical basis for the species’ protection and conservation. 【Method】 Based on 183 presence records and eight environmental variables, we used the MaxEnt model to predict the potential distribution of C. paliurus, as well as areas suitable for its cultivation. 【Result】The accuracy of the MaxEnt model for predicting the potential distribution of C. paliurus was very high, and the area under the receiver operator characteristic curve(AUC value)was 0.964 ± 0.006. According to the model, southern Zhejiang, northwestern Fujian, southern Anhui, eastern Hubei, eastern and western Jiangxi, eastern and western Hunan, eastern Guizhou, eastern Chongqing, southern shaanxi, and northeastern Sichuan are currently highly suitable for planting C. paliurus. As global temperatures increase in future, C. paliurus will likely expand its distribution to higher latitudes and altitudes. 【Conclusion】The main factors affecting the potential distribution of C. paliurus were related to air temperature, including annual mean temperature, seasonal variation and mean diurnal temperature range, moreover annual mean temperature was the most important factor.

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