Spatial-temporal change and driving factors of land use/cover in Anhui Province

doi:10.12302/j.issn.1000-2006.202210017

JOURNAL OF NANJING FORESTRY UNIVERSITY ›› 2023, Vol. 47 ›› Issue (5): 213-223.doi: 10.12302/j.issn.1000-2006.202210017

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Spatial-temporal change and driving factors of land use/cover in Anhui Province

LI Changai¹(), LIU Ling¹, QIU Bing²^,^*(), NI Cunming³, NING Lili¹, LI Yaliang¹, WANG Hui¹, LIU Xingyu¹, YANG Suhui¹

1. School of Biological Engineering, Huainan Normal University, Key Laboratory of Resource and Environmental Biotechnology, Huainan 232038, China
2. School of Landscape Architecture, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing 210037, China
3. Zaozhuang Housing Construction Development Center, Zaozhuang 277800, China

Received:2022-10-17 Revised:2022-12-19 Online:2023-09-30 Published:2023-10-10

Abstract

Abstract:

【Objective】The study aims to determine land-use/cover changes (LUCC) and their driving factors in Anhui Province, and provide theoretical reference data for the use and management of land and resources in Anhui Province. 【Method】Based on the classification data of Landsat series remote sensing images with a resolution of 30 m in Anhui Province, the spatial and temporal changes of land use/cover types in Anhui Province in a 25 year period from 1995 to 2020 were analyzed using the structure, spatial distribution, transfer matrix, dynamic change of land use/cover types, and comprehensive index of land use degrees, as well as its cluster analysis. The principal component analysis(PCA) was used to analyze the 13 factors that affect LUCC. 【Result】The cultivated land ranked first, followed by forest land and construction land in Anhui Province from 1995 to 2020. Cultivated land, forest land and grassland decreased by 3 826.6, 164.7 and 78.5 km², respectively, while the construction land, water area and unutilized land increased by 3 895.9, 160.9 and 16.2 km², respectively. The transfer area between the cultivated and constructed land was the largest. From 2005 to 2015, the decrease in the cultivated land, forest land and grassland and the increase in construction land showed the most obvious trends. From 2015 to 2020, the area of construction land converted to the cultivated land increased significantly. The change rates of the comprehensive index of land use degrees over 25 years in Hefei (2.18%) and Wuhu (1.60%), and the mining cities of Tongling (3.83%) and Huaibei (1.60%) were higher than those in Huangshan (0.42%) and Lu’an (0.66%), which feature mainly mountainous and hilly terrains. The results of the comprehensive index clustering analysis of the degree of land use in each city in 2020 were divided into three categories. The first category was Bozhou and Fuyang, which had the highest degrees of land development and utilization. The second category was Chuzhou, Ma’anshan, and other medium. The third category was Chizhou, Huangshan, and so on, which was the lowest. The dynamic attitude of the single and comprehensive LUCC was small before 2005, large from 2005 to 2015, and then decreased again after 2015. The results showed that the urbanization speed, economic development, and improvement in living standards and policy factors after 2015 were also the main driving forces of the LUCC in Anhui Province. 【Conclusion】With the economic and social development of Anhui Province from 2005 to 2015, LUCC increased sharply, and 2 926.1 km² of the cultivated land was occupied by the construction land. After 2015, the implementation of relevant land use and ecological policies resulted in the reduction of the integrated dynamic degree of the LUCC to 0.05%. However, there was still a decrease in the cultivated land and an increase in the construction land. Therefore, in the future, according to the LUCC characteristics and the specific situation of the economy, society, and natural resources of Anhui Province, policies for the rational utilization and development of land resources, such as the basic farmland protection and the balance of farmland occupation and compensation, should be implemented to promote the sustainable development of Anhui Province.

Key words: land use/cover change (LUCC), transfer matrix, driving factor, Anhui Province

CLC Number:

X171
S731

LI Changai, LIU Ling, QIU Bing, NI Cunming, NING Lili, LI Yaliang, WANG Hui, LIU Xingyu, YANG Suhui. Spatial-temporal change and driving factors of land use/cover in Anhui Province[J]. JOURNAL OF NANJING FORESTRY UNIVERSITY, 2023, 47(5): 213-223.

Figures/Tables 10

Fig. 1

Table 1

Table 2

Land use/cover transfer matrix in Anhui Province"

地类 land use type	时间段 time interval	草地 grassland	耕地 cultivated land	建设用地 construction land	林地 forest	水域 water area	未利用地 unutilized land
草地GL	1995—2000	8 330.6	9.5(23.23)	3.5(8.56)	26.1(63.81)	1.8(4.40)	0.0(0.00)
	2000—2005	8 320.1	7.0(17.33)	3.2(7.92)	29.5(73.02)	0.7(1.73)	0.0(0.00)
	2005—2010	8 235.8	27.6(23.17)	33.7(28.30)	54.4(45.68)	3.4(2.85)	0.0(0.00)
	2010—2015	8 209.0	24.2(20.92)	29.8(25.76)	48.8(42.18)	11.6(10.03)	1.3(1.12)
	2015—2020	8 059.2	68.9(30.86)	45.2(20.24)	100.5(45.00)	7.0(3.13)	1.7(0.76)
	1995—2020	8 066.6	79.2(25.93)	82.2(26.92)	131.8(43.16)	10.7(3.50)	1.5(0.49)
耕地CulL	1995—2000	6.8(0.98)	80 576.2	600.2(86.33)	65.6(9.44)	22.6(3.25)	0.0(0.00)
	2000—2005	7.7(1.52)	80 181.4	323.8(63.93)	76.5(15.10)	98.5(19.45)	0.0(0.00)
	2005—2010	33.5(1.80)	78 459.2	1 576.2(84.49)	121.3(6.5)	134.5(7.21)	0.1(0.01)
	2010—2015	28.4(1.62)	77 170.4	1 349.9(77.23)	108.9(6.23)	260.0(14.87)	0.8(0.05)
	2015—2020	67.4(2.23)	74 665.0	2 303.3(76.33)	318.0(10.54)	320.6(10.62)	8.2(0.27)
	1995—2020	89.1(1.58)	75 634.4	4 716.5(83.66)	364.4(6.46)	457.0(8.11)	10.5(0.19)
建设用地 ConL	1995—2000	0.3(0.92)	30.5(93.85)	11 002.0	1.2(3.69)	0.5(1.54)	0.0(0.00)
	2000—2005	0.3(1.47)	17.6(86.27)	11 597.3	1.3(6.37)	1.2(5.88)	0.0(0.00)
	2005—2010	1.5(0.62)	226.7(96.91)	11 703.8	3.0(1.29)	2.7(1.17)	0.0(0.00)
	2010—2015	4.9(1.66)	268.8(91.18)	13 118.7	11.3(3.83)	9.8(3.32)	0.0(0.00)
	2015—2020	35.0(1.60)	2 006.5(91.83)	12 438.3	93.3(4.27)	46.9(2.15)	3.2(0.15)
	1995—2020	5.5(0.48)	1 120.4(96.88)	9 878.1	9.2(0.80)	20.5(1.77)	0.9(0.08)
林地 FL	1995—2000	21.4(23.41)	58.9(64.44)	9.0(9.85)	32 189.8	2.1(0.30)	0.0(0.00)
	2000—2005	25.4(24.83)	65.3(63.83)	9.4(9.19)	32 182.3	2.2(2.15)	0.0(0.00)
	2005—2010	51.4(18.84)	126.9(46.50)	89.1(32.64)	32 020.9	5.0(1.84)	0.5(0.17)
	2010—2015	38.6(14.02)	114.8(41.70)	97.4(35.27)	31 929.9	22.9(8.32)	1.6(0.58)
	2015—2020	112.7(21.22)	304.7(57.38)	97.1(18.29)	31 571.1	13.5(2.54)	3.0(0.56)
	1995—2020	121.9(17.77)	342.2(49.88)	201.7(29.40)	31 595.5	16.0(2.33)	4.2(0.61)
水域 WA	1995—2000	1.2(6.98)	12.4(72.09)	1.5(8.72)	2.1(12.21)	7 167.8	0.0(0.00)
	2000—2005	0.9(1.46)	53.1(86.06)	4.1(6.65)	3.6(5.83)	7 133.7	0.0(0.00)
	2005—2010	2.5(2.61)	78.0(81.50)	11.3(11.81)	3.9(4.08)	7 140.6	0.0(0.00)
	2010—2015	1.6(1.17)	104.3(76.35)	27.2(19.91)	3.5(2.56)	7 149.4	0.0(0.00)
	2015—2020	18.2(3.67)	399.2(80.40)	45.7(9.20)	32.3(6.51)	6 957.1	1.1(0.22)
	1995—2020	10.2(2.96)	267.5(77.72)	51.2(14.88)	14.9(4.33)	6 840.8	0.4(0.12)
未利用地 UL	1995—2000	0.0(0.00)	0.0(0.00)	0.0(0.00)	0.0(0.00)	0.0(0.00)	5.8
	2000—2005	0.0(0.00)	0.0(0.00)	0.0(0.00)	0.0(0.00)	0.0(0.00)	5.8
	2005—2010	0.0(0.00)	0.0(0.00)	0.0(0.00)	0.9(75.00)	0.3(25.00)	4.7
	2010—2015	0.0(0.00)	0.0(0.00)	0.2(66.67)	0.1(33.33)	0.0(0.00)	5.0
	2015—2020	1.2(24.49)	0.8(16.33)	0.3(6.12)	1.4(28.57)	0.0(0.00)	4.9
	1995—2020	0.1(7.69)	0.0(0.00)	0.0(0.00)	0.9(69.23)	0.3(23.08)	4.5

Table 2

Table 3

Fig. 2

Table 4

Table 5

Table 6

Table 7

Fig. 3

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地类 land use type	1995		2000		2005		2010		2015		2020
地类 land use type	面积/ km² area	比例/% ratio	面积/ km² area	比例/% ratio	面积/ km² area	比例/% ratio	面积/ km² area	比例/% ratio	面积/ km² area	比例/% ratio	面积/ km² area	比例/% ratio
耕地CulL	81 271.8	58.0	80 688.2	57.6	80 324.8	57.3	78 918.5	56.3	77 682.6	55.4	77 445.3	55.3
林地FL	32 281.9	23.0	32 285.9	23.0	32 293.8	23.0	32 206.0	23.0	32 102.5	22.9	32 117.2	22.9
草地GL	8 372.1	6.0	8 360.5	6.0	8 354.9	6.0	8 324.8	5.9	8 282.6	5.9	8 293.7	5.9
水域WA	71 84.9	5.1	7 195.5	5.1	7 236.3	5.2	7 286.6	5.2	7 453.6	5.3	7 345.8	5.2
建设用地ConL	11 034.6	7.9	11 617.6	8.3	11 937.8	8.5	13 414.2	9.6	14 623.2	10.4	14 930.6	10.7
未利用地UL	5.9	0	5.9	0	5.9	0	5.3	0	8.7	0	22.1	0

城市 city	L		变化率/% rate of change over 25 years	城市 city	L		变化率/% rate of change over 25 years
城市 city	1995	2020	变化率/% rate of change over 25 years	城市 city	1995	2020	变化率/% rate of change over 25 years
宿州市 Suzhou	309.6	312.2	0.87	合肥市 Hefei	294.7	301.1	2.18
淮北市 Huaibei	308.7	313.7	1.60	马鞍山市 Ma’anshan	283.9	288.4	1.56
亳州市 Bozhou	315.4	318.0	0.85	芜湖市 Wuhu	280.8	285.2	1.60
蚌埠市 Bengbu	303.8	305.9	0.71	宣城市 Xuancheng	236.9	238.8	0.81
阜阳市 Fuyang	315.5	317.9	0.77	安庆市 Anqing	251.8	253.7	0.77
滁州市 Chuzhou	284.3	287.3	1.06	铜陵市 Tongling	261.3	271.4	3.83
淮南市 Huainan	302.0	306.5	1.50	池州市 Chizhou	230.0	232.1	0.92
六安市 Lu’an	262.8	264.6	0.66	黄山市 Huangshan	215.2	216.1	0.42

地类 land use type	1995—2000		2000—2005		2005—2010		2010—2015		2015—2020		1995—2020
地类 land use type	面积 area	动态度 dynamic degree	面积 area	动态度 dynamic degree	面积 area	动态度 dynamic degree	面积 area	动态度 dynamic degree	面积 area	动态度 dynamic degree	面积 area	动态度 dynamic degree
耕地CulL	-583.7	-0.14	-363.4	-0.09	-1 406.3	-0.35	-1 235.9	-0.31	-237.3	-0.06	-3 826.6	-0.94
林地FL	4.0	0.00	7.9	0.00	-87.9	-0.05	-103.5	-0.06	14.7	0.01	-164.7	-0.10
草地GL	-11.6	-0.03	-5.6	-0.01	-30.1	-0.07	-42.2	-0.10	11.1	0.03	-78.5	-0.19
水域WA	10.5	0.03	40.8	0.11	50.3	0.14	167.0	0.46	-107.8	-0.29	160.9	0.45
建设用地ConL	583.0	1.06	320.1	0.55	1 476.4	2.47	1 209.0	1.80	307.3	0.42	3 895.9	7.06
未利用地UL	-0.0	-0.09	0.0	0.09	-0.6	-2.03	3.4	12.74	13.4	30.72	16.2	54.63
综合LUCC	1 192.8	0.09	737.9	0.05	3 051.6	0.22	2 761.0	0.20	691.6	0.05	8 142.7	0.12

驱动因子 driving factor	X₁	X₂	X₃	X₄	X₅	X₆	X₇	X₈	X₉	X₁₀	X₁₁	X₁₂	X₁₃
X₁	1.000
X₂	0.990^**	1.000
X₃	0.992^**	0.997^**	1.000
X₄	0.998^**	0.994^**	0.994^**	1.000
X₅	0.990^**	0.966^**	0.969^**	0.985^**	1.000
X₆	0.968^**	0.988^**	0.983^**	0.979^**	0.931^**	1.000
X₇	0.997^**	0.986^**	0.989^**	0.996^**	0.993^**	0.960^**	1.000
X₈	-0.095	-0.138	-0.170	-0.091	-0.057	-0.106	-0.115	1.000
X₉	-0.945^**	-0.967^**	-0.958^**	-0.960^**	-0.907^**	-0.991^**	-0.936^**	0.024	1.000
X₁₀	0.957^**	0.947^**	0.951^**	0.955^**	0.950^**	0.919^**	0.958^**	-0.152	-0.895^**	1.000
X₁₁	0.942^**	0.963^**	0.957^**	0.955^**	0.900^**	0.986^**	0.932^**	-0.057	-0.988^**	0.899^**	1.000
X₁₂	0.978^**	0.972^**	0.968^**	0.982^**	0.976^**	0.962^**	0.979^**	-0.019	-0.955^**	0.934^**	0.938^**	1.000
X₁₃	0.313	0.309	0.298	0.317	0.345^*	0.293	0.339^*	-0.080	-0.275	0.226	0.262	0.359^*	1.000

主成分 PCs	特征值 eigenvectors	贡献率/% contribution rate	累积贡献率/% cumulative contribution rate
1	10.754	82.725	82.725
2	1.030	7.920	90.645
3	0.899	6.913	97.558
4	0.209	1.606	99.164
5	0.057	0.440	99.604
6	0.027	0.207	99.811
7	0.013	0.103	99.914
8	0.005	0.039	99.953
9	0.002	0.019	99.972
10	0.002	0.015	99.987
11	0.001	0.011	99.998
12	0	0.001	99.999
13	0	0.001	100

Spatial-temporal change and driving factors of land use/cover in Anhui Province

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驱动因子 driving factor	PC1	PC2
X₄	0.998	0.019
X₂	0.996	-0.022
X₃	0.995	-0.050
X₁	0.994	0.014
X₇	0.992	-0.014
X₆	0.985	0.016
X₁₂	0.985	0.074
X₅	0.978	0.034
X₉	-0.969	-0.098
X₁₁	0.965	0.070
X₁₀	0.956	-0.023
X₁₃	0.337	-0.321
X₈	-0.106	0.949

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