Abstract: Small populations are subject to large fluctuations arising from random processes at a variety of levels (genetic,demogeaphic,environmental and catastrophic),and such variation can place a population at high risk of extinction.Because giant panda is a long term studied animal,many parameters which PVA computer simulation model need can be estimated.We used Vortex computer model made by R.Lacy (vortex 6.3)with four kinds of different parameters to project the likely rate of current Yele panda population.The results show that the number of the panda will slowly increase with no inbreeding depression and no catastrophe,however when we run the computer with a very small inbreeding rate or 1.76% probability of catastrophe the population will be extinct in ninety years and sixty years respectively.