Changes of ecosystem service value in Anhui Province and prediction of its changing trend

WANG Dong, XU Jingjing, ZHOU Liangguang, WU Jian

JOURNAL OF NANJING FORESTRY UNIVERSITY ›› 2015, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (04) : 88-94.

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南京林业大学学报（自然科学版）
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JOURNAL OF NANJING FORESTRY UNIVERSITY ›› 2015, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (04) : 88-94. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-2006.2015.04.015

Changes of ecosystem service value in Anhui Province and prediction of its changing trend

  • WANG Dong1,2, XU Jingjing3, ZHOU Liangguang1,2*, WU Jian1,2
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Abstract

In order to analyze the effects of the change of land use type on ecosystem service value in Anhui Province, the ecological service value of Anhui province and five natural areas was calculated in 2000,2005 and 2010 based on dynamic data of the land use of Anhui province. Costanza calculation method of the ecosystem services value was used as reference. And coefficient of per unit area ecosystem service value of ecological system in Anhui was adopted.Grey forecasting model was established to predict the developmental trend of ecosystem services value. The results showed that the change of ecological service value was roughly an inverted “V” type in recent 10 years in Anhui Province. The ecological value had increased by 15 469 billion yuan from 2000 to 2005, but it had decreased by 2 531 billion yuan from 2005 to 2010. Using the prediction results of land use type to calculate the change of ecosystem service value from 2010 to 2020, it will decline from 249 730 billion yuan in 2010 to 234 865 billion yuan in 2020, with a drop of 5.96%.With the mass decrease of cultivated land and grassland, and the annual increase of construction land, the ecological pressure had become heavier and ecosystem service value tended to fall in recent ten years. In order to build a good ecological environment for sustainable and harmonious development of Anhui Province, we should adjust and optimize the land use structure,establish a dynamic ecological compensation mechanism and keep a reasonable population growth.

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WANG Dong, XU Jingjing, ZHOU Liangguang, WU Jian. Changes of ecosystem service value in Anhui Province and prediction of its changing trend[J]. JOURNAL OF NANJING FORESTRY UNIVERSITY. 2015, 39(04): 88-94 https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1000-2006.2015.04.015

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