Invasion risk analysis of Plum pox virus to China

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-2006.2016.06.029

LIN Sixi, DING Xiaolei, YE Jianren, ZHAO Qi

JOURNAL OF NANJING FORESTRY UNIVERSITY ›› 2016, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (06) : 187-192.

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JOURNAL OF NANJING FORESTRY UNIVERSITY ›› 2016, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (06) : 187-192. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-2006.2016.06.029

Invasion risk analysis of Plum pox virus to China

LIN Sixi, DING Xiaolei, YE Jianren^*, ZHAO Qi

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Abstract

To evaluate the invasion risk and potential consequences brought by the Plum pox virus, we predicted the potential distribution of Plum pox virus in China using the maximum entropy(Maxent)ecological niche models combined with geographic information system(ArcGIS)based on its current distribution and the environment variables of target region, which divided the territory into four parts: high suitable region, medium suitable region. From 5 aspects of the possibility of incoming, colonization, diffusion, the victim host economic importance and difficulty of risk management, including 18 indicators, this article has carried the virus invasion risk analysis on the qualitative and quantitative level with the standard of integrated multi index evaluation system. The results showed that the potential distribution of Plum pox virus mainly located in the eastern and southern China. The geographical coordinates range were among the area of 101.93°-122.75°E, 19.60°-40.76°N, accounted for 25%-50% area of China, the suitable region is broader. The invasion risk index value(R)of Plum pox virus in China was 2.49 which belonged to high risk levels of harmful organisms. Since there is no national record of PPV in China, strict quarantine measures including both serological and molecular biological detection was absolutely necessary. And more than two years isolated planting were also required to prevent the spreading to China.

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LIN Sixi, DING Xiaolei, YE Jianren, ZHAO Qi. Invasion risk analysis of Plum pox virus to China[J]. JOURNAL OF NANJING FORESTRY UNIVERSITY. 2016, 40(06): 187-192 https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1000-2006.2016.06.029

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