Evolvement and prediction of landscape pattern in Yixing City based on urbanization process

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-2006.201811016

JOURNAL OF NANJING FORESTRY UNIVERSITY ›› 2019, Vol. 43 ›› Issue (6): 105-112.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-2006.201811016

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Evolvement and prediction of landscape pattern in Yixing City based on urbanization process

LIU Zhili¹(), YUE Depeng¹^,^*(), YANG Hui², ZHANG Qibin¹, YU Qiang¹, XU Xiaodong³

1. Beijing Key Laboratory of Precision Forestry, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China
2. School of Resources and Geosciences, China University of Mining and Technology, Xuzhou 221116, China
3. School of Architecture, Southeast University, Nanjing 210096, China

Received:2018-11-07 Revised:2019-04-02 Online:2019-11-30 Published:2019-11-30
Contact: YUE Depeng E-mail:seeitomorrow@163.com;yuedepeng@126.com

Abstract

Abstract:

【Objective】Under the background of the accelerating urbanization process, the prediction of regional change can be used as a reference to study landscape planning in local and surrounding areas. To analyze the evolution of landscape pattern distribution in Yixing City in recent years, we explored the relationship between urbanization level and landscape pattern change. 【Method】The changing process of landscape distribution in Yixing was analyzed using landscape index and transfer matrix based on remote sensing image data from 1996 to 2016. Then, the gray prediction model was used to estimate the trend of the main types of landscapes in the future. 【Result】 Results showed that during the evolution of the landscape, construction land, forest and grassland continued to expand with the complication of distribution and the area increased by 168.13 and 375.76 km², respectively. Further, cultivated and unutilized lands were shrinking constantly. The cultivated land, forest and grassland changed greatly in the early period, and the ratios were -4.72% and 10.18%, respectively. However, the area of cultivated land did not considerably decrease from 2006 to 2016, and its distribution tended to be regular. With the continuous improvement of the urbanization level, connection between the urbanization level and cultivated land, grassland and construction land is close; the correlation is higher than 0.8. In the future evolution of the landscape, the arable land will be in a dynamic and stable state. With time, the construction land and forest and grassland would continue to be in an ever-expanding state, and the growth rate is predicted to be 15.1% and 35.4%, respectively, in 2016 and 2024. 【Conclusion】The landscape pattern of Yixing City changed significantly from 1996 to 2016 and the process of urbanization had a great impact on the scope and distribution of the construction land, cultivated land, forest and grassland, which could provide a general reference for the development of Yixing City and the surrounding areas.

Key words: landscape index, landscape pattern, gray prediction model, regional landscape, Yixing City

CLC Number:

P901

LIU Zhili, YUE Depeng, YANG Hui, ZHANG Qibin, YU Qiang, XU Xiaodong. Evolvement and prediction of landscape pattern in Yixing City based on urbanization process[J]. JOURNAL OF NANJING FORESTRY UNIVERSITY, 2019, 43(6): 105-112.

Figures/Tables 12

Fig.1

Fig.2

Fig.3

Table 1

Table 2

Table 3

Fig.4

Table 4

Table 5

Table 6

Accuracy class test table"

精度 precision	均方差比值 mean square error ratio	小误差概率 small error probability	平均相对误差 average relative error
一级 first level	0< $C i$ ≤0.35	0.95 ≤ P_i ≤1	0< \| $Δ ?$ \| ≤0.01
二级 second level	0.35< $C i$ ≤0.5	0.80 ≤ P_i <0.95	0.01< \| $Δ ?$ \| ≤0.05
三级 third level	0.5< $C i$ ≤0.65	0.70 ≤ P_i <0.80	0.05<\| $Δ ?$ \|≤0.10
四级 fourth level	C_i >0.65	P_i <0.70	\| $Δ ?$ \|>0.10

Table 6

Table 7

Fig.5

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时期 period	景观类型 landscape type	面积/km² area						变化率/% rate of change
时期 period	景观类型 landscape type	CLL	CL	FG	W	UL	总计sum	变化率/% rate of change
1996—2006	CLL	305.18	114.46	107.96	7.43	133.70	668.73	54.36
	CL	10.97	293.60	98.42	15.21	21.40	439.60	33.21
	FG	2.22	20.94	196.07	0.57	19.83	239.63	18.18
	W	0.85	12.74	0.72	388.27	1.46	404.04	3.90
	UL	34.16	67.42	80.44	5.97	112.49	300.49	62.56
	总计sum	353.38	509.16	483.61	417.46	288.88	2 052.49
2006—2016	CLL	216.64	68.98	64.03	2.71	1.02	353.38	38.69
	CL	18.98	378.92	73.65	36.74	0.87	509.16	25.58
	FG	32.91	87.39	354.72	2.62	5.96	483.61	26.65
	W	1.65	11.58	1.99	402.21	0.02	417.46	3.65
	UL	72.94	60.85	121.01	3.76	30.32	288.88	89.50
	总计sum	343.13	607.73	615.39	448.04	38.20	2 052.49

景观类型 landscape type	动态度/% dynamic degree
景观类型 landscape type	1996—2006	2006—2016
CLL	-4.72	-0.29
CL	1.58	1.94
FG	10.18	2.72
W	0.33	0.73
UL	-0.39	-8.68

景观类型 landscape type	年份 year	斑块面积占比/% PLAND	景观形状指数 LSI	周长面积分维数 PAFRAC	边缘密度/ (m·hm^-2) ED	聚集度指数 AI	最近距离/m ENN
CLL	1996	32.58	130.89	1.39	65.67	84.91	86.87
	2006	17.22	146.79	1.42	53.69	76.68	86.32
	2016	16.22	132.41	1.38	47.72	78.68	93.81
CL	1996	21.42	151.47	1.41	61.74	78.44	85.94
	2006	24.81	154.43	1.43	67.74	79.57	94.49
	2016	29.61	163.23	1.43	78.17	80.23	90.23
FG	1996	11.68	146.05	1.52	43.86	71.83	106.43
	2006	23.56	166.30	1.50	70.98	77.40	81.12
	2016	29.98	166.79	1.49	80.22	79.92	77.62
W	1996	19.69	14.72	1.37	5.34	97.95	172.82
	2006	20.34	26.26	1.34	10.02	96.28	130.47
	2016	21.83	40.35	1.37	16.20	94.41	112.23
UL	1996	14.64	202.22	1.53	68.15	65.11	83.91
	2006	14.08	245.43	1.55	81.20	56.74	75.14
	2016	1.86	61.52	1.39	7.40	70.41	164.77

景观类型 landscape type	面积/km² area
景观类型 landscape type	1996	1998	2000	2002	2004	2006	2008	2010	2012	2014	2016
CLL	668.73	605.66	542.59	479.52	416.45	353.38	351.33	349.28	347.23	345.18	343.13
CL	439.60	453.51	467.42	481.34	495.25	509.16	528.88	548.59	568.30	588.01	607.73
FG	239.63	288.43	337.22	386.02	434.81	483.61	509.96	536.32	562.68	589.03	615.39
W	404.04	406.72	409.40	412.09	414.77	417.46	423.57	429.69	435.81	441.93	448.04
UL	300.49	298.17	295.84	293.52	291.20	288.88	238.74	188.61	138.47	88.33	38.20

项目 item	1996	1998	2000	2002	2004	2006	2008	2010	2012	2014	2016
x₀	668.73	605.66	542.59	479.52	416.45	353.38	351.33	349.28	347.23	345.18	343.13
y₀	6.505 4	6.406 3	6.296 4	6.172 8	6.031 8	5.867 5	5.861 7	5.855 9	5.850 0	5.844 1	5.838 1
y₁	6.505 4	12.911 7	19.208 1	25.380 9	31.412 6	37.280 2	43.141 9	48.997 8	54.847 8	60.691 8	66.530 0
z₁		9.708 5	16.059 9	22.294 5	28.396 7	34.346 4	40.211 0	46.069 8	51.922 8	57.769 8	63.610 9

Evolvement and prediction of landscape pattern in Yixing City based on urbanization process

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Figures/Tables 12

References 19

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指标 index	耕地 CLL	建设用地 CL	林草地 FG
均方差比值 mean square error ratio	0.36	0.18	0.12
小误差概率 small error probability	0.91	1	1
平均相对误差 average relative error	-0.027	0.010	0.007
预测精度 precision of prediction	二级 second level	一级 first level	一级 first level