Responses of masson pine(Pinus massoniana) distribution patterns to future climate change

doi:10.12302/j.issn.1000-2006.202008019

JOURNAL OF NANJING FORESTRY UNIVERSITY ›› 2022, Vol. 46 ›› Issue (2): 196-204.doi: 10.12302/j.issn.1000-2006.202008019

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Responses of masson pine(Pinus massoniana) distribution patterns to future climate change

WU Fan(), ZHU Peihuang, JI Kongshu()

Key Laboratory of Forest Genetics and Biotechnology, Ministry of Education, Co-Innovation Center for the Sustainable Forestry in Southern China, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing 210037, China

Received:2020-08-13 Accepted:2021-06-18 Online:2022-03-30 Published:2022-04-08
Contact: JI Kongshu E-mail:eiknarf@126.com;ksji@njfu.edu.cn

Abstract

Abstract:

【Objective】The suitable distribution range of masson pine (Pinus massoniana) was analyzed and predicted considering future climate change, and the main climatic factors affecting the potential geographical distribution are discussed in order to provide a reference and a guidance for the management and protection of germplasm resources in the potential distribution area.【Method】Masson pine distribution data recorded according to the Chinese Virtual Herbarium, a MaxEnt model and geographic information system software ArcGIS 10.3 were used to investigate the current distribution characteristics and potential distribution areas. A suitable distribution range and future changes (until 2050 and 2070) under two climate scenarios [representative concentration pathways (RCP) 2.6 and RCP 8.5)] were predicted, and the main climatic factors were analyzed.【Result】At present, the areas covered by masson pine were mainly distributed in the south of the Qinling Mountains-Huaihe River line. Zhejiang, Fujian, Jiangxi, southwest of Hubei, Hunan, Chongqing, southeast of Sichuan, north of Guizhou, central Guangxi, and northern Guangdong were the main distribution areas, whereas Hainan, Yunnan and Taiwan of China were scattered distribution areas. In the future climate scenario, the adaptive area of masson pine will move to the northern part of China, including areas in the west of Henan Province, Shandong Peninsula, Liaodong Peninsula, east of Hebei, and south of Shanxi Province, whereas there will be no natural distribution in scattered areas in the south of Yunnan. In two climate scenarios and under the same RCP, the difference between the adaptive areas of different years was not pronounced, and the variation trend was roughly the same. However, there were significant differences in changes of each adaptive area under different RCP scenarios of the same age, and the impact of RCP 8.5 was higher than that of RCP 2.6. The dominant bioclimate variables affecting the geographical distribution of masson pine were average annual precipitation, precipitation during the driest months, and average daily temperature ranges, and precipitation exerted stronger effects than temperature.【Conclusion】 Future climate change will lead to a further expansion of masson pine distributions, and the new distribution areas will mainly be in the north of the current distribution area. Based on the current habitat of masson pine, a protection zone should be established reasonably according to the local climate type, soil conditions, and other environmental factors, so that masson pine populations can adapt over time to the new environment.

Key words: masson pine(Pinus massoniana), climate change, MaxEnt model, representative concentration pathways, potential geographic distribution, dominant bioclimate factor

CLC Number:

S791.24

WU Fan, ZHU Peihuang, JI Kongshu. Responses of masson pine(Pinus massoniana) distribution patterns to future climate change[J]. JOURNAL OF NANJING FORESTRY UNIVERSITY, 2022, 46(2): 196-204.

Figures/Tables 8

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时期 period	PCR	适生区面积/×10⁴ km² suitable areas				面积变化/×10⁴ km²area change
时期 period	PCR	非适生区 non-suitable	低适生区 low suitable	中适生区 moderate suitable	高适生区 high suitable	消失面积 vanished area	增加面积 increased area	稳定面积 stable area
当前 current	—	735.27	47.53	70.12	103.53	—	—	—
2050	2.6	-11.92	+10.73	+1.37	-0.18	1.26	9.31	220.28
2050	8.5	-23.00	+17.15	-6.13	+11.98	1.19	23.77	220.29
2070	2.6	-8.56	+7.38	+0.23	+0.96	1.94	13.32	219.59
2070	8.5	-34.16	+27.79	-6.08	+12.42	2.24	35.99	219.21

气候因子 climatic factor	描述 description	贡献率/% contribution rate
bio12	年均降水量 mean annual precipitation	34.6
bio14	最干月降水量 precipitation of the driest month	33.7
bio2	平均气温日较差 mean diurnal air temperature range	14.1
bio3	昼夜温差占年温差比 iso-thermality (bio2×100 / bio7)	6.6
bio11	最冷季均温 mean temperature of the coldest quarter	5.1
bio7	年均温变化范围 mean temperature annual range	2.1
bio9	最干季均温 mean temperature of the driest quarter	0.6

Responses of masson pine(Pinus massoniana) distribution patterns to future climate change

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