Potential distribution patterns and future changes of Ulmus pumila in China based on the MaxEnt model

HAN Shumin, YAN Wei, YANG Xuedong, HU Bo, YU Fengqiang, GAO Runhong

JOURNAL OF NANJING FORESTRY UNIVERSITY ›› 2023, Vol. 47 ›› Issue (3) : 103-110.

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南京林业大学学报（自然科学版）
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JOURNAL OF NANJING FORESTRY UNIVERSITY ›› 2023, Vol. 47 ›› Issue (3) : 103-110. DOI: 10.12302/j.issn.1000-2006.202110031

Potential distribution patterns and future changes of Ulmus pumila in China based on the MaxEnt model

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Abstract

【Objectives】This study investigated the influence of climatic conditions, distribution ranges, and future changes of Ulmus pumila in China to provide a theoretical basis for the scientific protection and rational development of U. pumila.【Method】MaxEnt and ArcGIS software were used here to predict the potential distribution areas of U. pumila under three climate scenarios of the present, 2050s, and 2070s (RCP2.6 and RCP6.0).【Result】This study on the distribution of U. pumila was important to reveal its ecological adaptability. The MaxEnt model predicted the potential distribution areas of U. pumila with a high accuracy, with the AUC values of the training and testing sets being 0.921 and 0.911, respectively. The contribution rates of temperature seasonality change (Bio4), annual precipitation (Bio12) and precipitation seasonality change (Bio15) were all 88.4%. The potential distribution of U. pumila during the current period was predicted based on climate and environmental variables. For this, the middle adaptive areas were concentrated in Xinjiang, central Inner Mongolia, Gansu and other northwest regions of China, with a small distribution being found in Jilin, Liaoning and Hulunbuir of Inner Mongolia. Additionally, highly adaptive areas were mainly concentrated in north China, such as Hebei, Shaanxi, Shanxi and Shandong provinces. With the context of global climate change, under different climate scenarios in the 2050s and 2070s (RCP2.6 and RCP6.0), the highly adaptive areas of U. pumila decreased, whilst the adaptive areas increased in the middle and lower areas, with an appearance of new potential adaptive areas. 【Conclusion】Annual temperature and precipitation were the main factors affecting the distributions of U. pumila. Currently, the adaptive areas of U. pumila are mainly concentrated within northern, northwestern, and northeastern China. In the future, it is projected to migrate to areas of high latitudes and altitudes.

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Ulmus pumila / environmental factors / MaxEnt model / potential distribution

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HAN Shumin , YAN Wei , YANG Xuedong , et al . Potential distribution patterns and future changes of Ulmus pumila in China based on the MaxEnt model[J]. JOURNAL OF NANJING FORESTRY UNIVERSITY. 2023, 47(3): 103-110 https://doi.org/10.12302/j.issn.1000-2006.202110031

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