Modelling the effects of climate change on stand biomass growth of larch plantations

HE Xiao, LEI Xiangdong, DUAN Guangshuang, FENG Qingrong, ZHANG Yiru, FENG Linyan

JOURNAL OF NANJING FORESTRY UNIVERSITY ›› 2023, Vol. 47 ›› Issue (3) : 120-128.

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JOURNAL OF NANJING FORESTRY UNIVERSITY ›› 2023, Vol. 47 ›› Issue (3) : 120-128. DOI: 10.12302/j.issn.1000-2006.202211037

Modelling the effects of climate change on stand biomass growth of larch plantations

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Abstract

【Objective】This study aimed to understand the effects of climate change on the stand biomass and growth in larch (Larix spp.) plantations to provide a basis for estimating carbon storage and employing adaptive management decision-making. 【Method】Sample plot data of pure larch plantations from the 6th to 8th National Forest Inventories in northern and northeastern China were used to develop stand biomass growth models based on theoretical growth equations. Taking the tree species as a dummy variable, a climate-sensitive stand biomass growth model was developed with the inclusion of the annual heat-moisture index (AHM). The stand biomass and annual increment under three climate change scenarios, including a constant climate and two greenhouse gas representative concentration paths (RCPs) (RCP 4.5, RCP 8.5), were simulated using the model. The relative differences between the estimated results under two RCP climate scenarios and the current scenario were calculated to quantify the effects of climate change on the stand biomass and annual increment. 【Result】The R2 values of the basic stand biomass growth model, model with dummy variables, and model with dummy and climate variables were 0.938 2, 0.947 0, and 0.950 7, respectively. Dummy variables and climatic factors improved the performances of the models. Compared with the current scenario, both increasing and decreasing trends were found for the stand biomass and annual increment of each tree species under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. For stand biomass, the ranges of the mean values of relative differences under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios were from -3.02% and -4.72 % to 2.69% and 3.41%, respectively. For the annual increment of stand biomass, the ranges of the mean values of relative differences under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios were from -1.92% and -2.66% to 0.30% and 0.72%, respectively. 【Conclusion】The stand biomass growth model established in this study can be used to simulate the stand biomass growth in pure larch plantations under climate change conditions. There were both increasing and decreasing trends for the stand biomass and annual increments of larch plantations with future climate change in different tree species. The direction and magnitude of the impacts of future climate change on the stand biomass and annual increments differed among tree species. Generally, positive effects on the stand biomass were found for Larix principis-rupprechtii and L. kaempferi, but negative effects were found for other tree species; and negative effects on the stand biomass annual increment were found for all tree species with the exception of L. principis-rupprechtii.

Key words

stand biomass / annual increment / growth model / annual heat-moisture index / climate change

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HE Xiao , LEI Xiangdong , DUAN Guangshuang , et al . Modelling the effects of climate change on stand biomass growth of larch plantations[J]. JOURNAL OF NANJING FORESTRY UNIVERSITY. 2023, 47(3): 120-128 https://doi.org/10.12302/j.issn.1000-2006.202211037

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