Temperature, precipitation and runoff prediction in the Yangtze River basin based on CMIP 6 multi-model

doi:10.12302/j.issn.1000-2006.202203028

JOURNAL OF NANJING FORESTRY UNIVERSITY ›› 2024, Vol. 48 ›› Issue (2): 1-8.doi: 10.12302/j.issn.1000-2006.202203028

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Temperature, precipitation and runoff prediction in the Yangtze River basin based on CMIP 6 multi-model

HE Xu¹(), MIAO Zimei¹^,^*(), TIAN Jiaxi², YANG Liu¹, ZHANG Zengxin¹, ZHU Bin¹

1. Co-Innovation Center for Sustainable Forestry in Southern China, Jiangsu Province Key Laboratory of Soil and Water Conservation and Ecological Restoration, College of Ecology and Grassland, College of Soil and Water Conservation,Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing 210037, China
2. College of Ecology and Environment, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing 210037, China

Received:2022-03-12 Revised:2022-05-07 Online:2024-03-30 Published:2024-04-08

Abstract

Abstract:

【Objective】 This research aims to explore the impact of future climate change on predicted runoff trends in the Yangtze River basin and provide a basis for early flood warning and prevention measures in the Yangtze River basin and other regions. 【Method】 Temperature, precipitation and runoff in the Yangtze River basin from 1961 to 2014 were evaluated by using the multi-mode set average (MME) of the international coupled model intercomparison project phase 6 (CMIP 6) and the SWAT hydrological model and predicted under SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 emission scenarios from 2020 to 2099.【Result】 (1) Compared with the single model, MME showed better performance in simulating temperature and precipitation during historical periods, with a correlation coefficient with the observation value was >0.90. Further, MME simulated the spatial distribution of temperature and precipitation well. (2) The MME analysis showed that during 2020 and 2099, temperature and precipitation increases in the Yangtze River basin under all scenarios were <50% and <20%, respectively. Simulated temperature under the SSP5-8.5 scenario was 1.23 ℃ higher than that under the SSP1-1.9 scenario, and 0.99 ℃ higher than that under the SSP1-2.6 scenario. (3) Overall, future annual runoff of the entire Yangtze River basin increased significantly and reached 40 380 m³/s under the SSP5-5.8 scenario at the end of the 21st century.【Conclusion】 Temperature, precipitation and runoff in the Yangtze River basin are predicted to increase in the future, whereas flood disasters under low emission scenarios are relatively less likely.

Key words: Yangtze River basin, climate change, coupled model intercomparison project phase 6(CMIP 6), ensemble estimation, runoff simulation

CLC Number:

P467

HE Xu, MIAO Zimei, TIAN Jiaxi, YANG Liu, ZHANG Zengxin, ZHU Bin. Temperature, precipitation and runoff prediction in the Yangtze River basin based on CMIP 6 multi-model[J]. JOURNAL OF NANJING FORESTRY UNIVERSITY, 2024, 48(2): 1-8.

Figures/Tables 7

Table 1

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Table 3

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编号 code	模式名称 GCMs	国家 country	空间分辨率 spatial resolution
A	UKESM1-0-LL	英国	192×144
B	MIROC-ES2L	日本	128×64
C	CAMS-CSM1-0	中国	320×160
D	CanESM5	加拿大	128×64
E	GFDL-ESM4	美国	288×180
F	MRI-ESM2-0	日本	320×160
G	IPSL-CM6A-LR	法国	144×143
H	MIROC6	日本	256×128

指标 indicator	差值比D-value
指标 indicator	≤-50%	(-50%,-10%]	(-10%,-5%]	(-5%,5%]	(5%,10%]	(10%,50%]	>50%
气温air temperature	20.62	17.06	4.60	16.17	6.82	23.29	11.42
降水precipitation	2.37	36.80	6.23	14.69	6.38	24.63	8.90

水文站 hydrometric station	时期 period	N_S	R²
大通站 Datong station	率定期calibration period	0.80	0.86
	验证期verification period	0.76	0.84
汉口站 Hankou station	率定期calibration period	0.78	0.84
	验证期verification period	0.74	0.84
寸滩站 Cuntan station	率定期calibration period	0.75	0.83
	验证期verification period	0.64	0.83

Temperature, precipitation and runoff prediction in the Yangtze River basin based on CMIP 6 multi-model

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