JOURNAL OF NANJING FORESTRY UNIVERSITY ›› 2024, Vol. 48 ›› Issue (3): 257-267.doi: 10.12302/j.issn.1000-2006.202302004

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Evaluation of the development process and its policy adjustment respose state-owned forest region in Great Khingan Mountains, Heilongjiang

CHEN Keyi1(), HE Youjun1, ZHANG Liwen2, CAI Qi3,*()   

  1. 1. Research Institute of Forestry Policy and Information, Chinese Academy of Forestry, Beijing 100091, China
    2. Daxing’anling Forestry Group Company, Daxing’anling 165000, China
    3. Research Institute of Ecological Conservation and Restoration, Chinese Academy of Forestry, Beijing 100091, China
  • Received:2023-02-05 Revised:2023-03-09 Online:2024-05-30 Published:2024-06-14

Abstract:

【Objective】 A scientific evaluation of the development process and prediction of the development trend of state-owned forest areas would be of great significance. It could provide guidance for the continuous in-depth reform of state-owned forests, promoting the coordinated development of the regional economy, and maintaining ecological security, defense security, and timber reserve security at the national level.【Method】 Taking the state-owned forest region of the Great Khingan Mountains in Heilongjiang Province as the study area, an evaluation index of the transformation and development process was constructed based on the five system layers of resource conservation, industrial development, enterprise management, the welfare of local people, and support security. The entropy weight TOPSIS method was used to quantitatively evaluate the transformation and development process from 2000 to 2020, and the gray GM (1,1) model and policy adjustment method were applied to fit the development trend from 2021 to 2025.【Result】 First, the funds raised by enterprises, professional and technical personnel, attraction of investment, average annual wage of on-the-job employees, proportion of the output value of the tertiary industry, and forest land area were important indicators affecting the development of the research area. Second, the bottom line goal of “protecting ecology and people’s livelihood” was achieved. Third, the development trend of each system level was not coordinated, and there was a clear developmental lag in the progress of industrial development, enterprise management, and support systems. Fourth, the development of the research area was heavily dependent on policy dividends, while the endogenous power and vitality need to be improved. Fifth, the study area faces much uncertainty, and the development trend during the “14th Five-Year Plan” period did not have an optimistic outlook. 【Conclusion】 On the basis of consolidating the natural environment and the well-being of local people, optimizing the industrial structure, improving the management efficiency of forest industry enterprises, and consolidating support and ensuring capability are the key strategic priorities for advancing the development of the research area.

Key words: state-owned forest egion, development process, entropy weight TOPSIS method, GM(1,1) model, Great Khingan Mountains

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