Prediction of potential suitable regions of Prunus pseudocerasus based on MaxEnt model under climate change

doi:10.12302/j.issn.1000-2006.202212007

JOURNAL OF NANJING FORESTRY UNIVERSITY ›› 2024, Vol. 48 ›› Issue (4): 235-242.doi: 10.12302/j.issn.1000-2006.202212007

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Prediction of potential suitable regions of Prunus pseudocerasus based on MaxEnt model under climate change

FU Chenlong(), LI Meng^*(), TIAN Changfen, SONG Yanfeng, YI Xiangui, WANG Xianrong

Co-Innovation Center for Sustainable Forestry in Southern China, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing 210037, China

Received:2022-12-04 Revised:2023-08-22 Online:2024-07-30 Published:2024-08-05
Contact: LI Meng E-mail:15955152808@163.com;limeng@njfu.edu.cn

Abstract

Abstract:

【Objective】Prunus pseudocerasus, one of the oldest cultivated species in China, is the focus of this study which predicts its suitable growth regions currently and in the future. This serves as a reference for understanding its growth habits and enhancing its cultivation.【Method】The MaxEnt model simulated the distribution of potential suitable areas for P. pseudocerasus under four climate scenarios (SSP126,SSP245,SSP370 and SSP585) at different times. This was based on geographic and environmental climate data. Important climatic variables influencing these areas were identified, and changes in potential suitable regions were analyzed.【Result】The accuracy of the predictions was validated using ROC analysis, achieving a high score of 0.936. Key climatic factors included annual precipitation, minimum temperature of the coldest month, and mean temperature of the warmest quarter. Soil factors did not significantly limit the distribution of P. pseudocerasus. Currently, suitable areas are primarily in the eastern, central and southwest China, with highly suitable regions in central and eastern Shandong, and southern Shaanxi. Climate change is expected to reduce these areas while creating new suitable regions in central Xizang and eastern Jilin.【Conclusion】Under future climate change scenarios, the potential suitable areas for P. pseudocerasus will become fragmented and shift towards higher latitudes and altitudes. These findings provide a theoretical basis for the conservation and industrial development of P. pseudocerasus in China.

Key words: Prunus pseudocerasus, potential suitable regions, protection of germplasm resources, MaxEnt model

CLC Number:

S718

FU Chenlong, LI Meng, TIAN Changfen, SONG Yanfeng, YI Xiangui, WANG Xianrong. Prediction of potential suitable regions of Prunus pseudocerasus based on MaxEnt model under climate change[J]. JOURNAL OF NANJING FORESTRY UNIVERSITY, 2024, 48(4): 235-242.

Figures/Tables 7

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变量 variable	贡献率/% percent contribution	置换重要值/% permutation importance
Bio12	38.4	12.1
Bio6	30.6	29.9
Bio10	7.6	6.3
Bio4	5.7	11.5
Bio3	3.4	1.4
Bio2	2.5	5.8
AWC_CLASS	2.0
Bio19	1.6	2.7
Bio15	1.2	2.3
T_CACO₃	1.2	3.0
T_CLAY	1.2	10.1
T_GRAVEL	1.0	1.2
T_TEB	0.9	1.6
T_SILT	0.6	1.3
T_PH_H₂O	0.6	0.3
Bio16	0.4	9.8
T_SAND	0.4	1.8
T_OC	0.3	0.6
T_ESP	0.3	1

气候情景 climatic scenario	时期 period	非适生区面积 area of non-suitable area	低适生区面积 area of low fitness area	中适生区面积 area of meso-suitable area	高适生区面积 area of high suitable area
SSP126	2050s	1.644	3.411	-2.681	-2.374
	2070s	1.061	4.450	-3.010	-2.501
SSP245	2050s	29.700	3.969	-2.209	-2.057
	2070s	2.834	3.988	-4.114	-2.707
SSP370	2050s	2.579	3.061	-3.239	-2.400
	2070s	4.349	2.746	-4.547	-2.549
SSP585	2050s	-66.800	3.501	-29.700	-2.536
	2070s	-18.400	7.247	-4.158	-2.905

Prediction of potential suitable regions of Prunus pseudocerasus based on MaxEnt model under climate change

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