Estimation of habitat suitability and climatic distribution change of Pegaeophyton scapiflorum based on the MaxEnt model

doi:10.12302/j.issn.1000-2006.202302003

JOURNAL OF NANJING FORESTRY UNIVERSITY ›› 2024, Vol. 48 ›› Issue (5): 173-180.doi: 10.12302/j.issn.1000-2006.202302003

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Estimation of habitat suitability and climatic distribution change of Pegaeophyton scapiflorum based on the MaxEnt model

LI Ruilan¹(), FAN Jinya², ZHAO Qian², LI Tingju², WANG Chenghui¹, DING Rong², GU Rui¹^,^*(), ZHONG Shihong³

1. College of Ethnic Medicine, Chengdu University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Chengdu 611137, China
2. College of Pharmacy, Chengdu University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Chengdu 611137, China
3. College of Pharmacy, Southwest Minzu University College, Chengdu 610041, China

Received:2023-02-03 Revised:2023-05-19 Online:2024-09-30 Published:2024-10-03
Contact: GU Rui E-mail:2370403423@qq.com;664893924@qq.com

Abstract

Abstract:

【Objective】 Pegaeophyton scapiflorum can be found mainly in the high altitudes of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau in China, and the traditional surveys are difficult to implement. This study explored the dominant climatic factors that limit the distribution of P. scapiflorum in China and simulated its suitable distribution areas. The goal was to provide a theoretical basis for the investigation and protection of wild resources of P. scapiflorum. 【Method】 This study was based on 88 distribution sites and eight environmental factor variables of P. scapiflorum in China. The MaxEnt model was employed to predict the changes in its potential habitat. Additionally, the possible influence of climatic change under the extremely pessimistic representative concentration pathways scenarios RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 for the 2050s and 2070s were estimated. A comprehensive analysis of the main environmental factors affecting the distribution of P. scapiflorum was conducted. 【Result】 (1) The prediction accuracy of the MaxEnt model was high, and the AUC was 0.887. The prediction showed that P. scapiflorum is mainly located in the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau currently. The highly suitable areas were mainly distributed in the Kailas Range, Himalayas, southern valley of Xizang, Qaidam Basin, Nyainqêntanglha Mountains, Tanggula Mountains, the southern section of the Aemye Ma-chhen Range, the northern part of the Songpan-Ganzi Plateau, and Hengduan Mountain. The total suitable area of the potential geographical distribution of P. scapiflorum was approximately 310 × 10⁴ km², including 80.81 × 10⁴ km² of highly suitable areas. (2) The main environmental factor variables affecting the potential geographical distribution of P. scapiflorum were geomorphology, temperature, and precipitation, among which dem, isothermality, and annual precipitation aere the key environmental factors. (3) Under different climate change models, the suitable habitat will be reduced by 24%-28% compared with the present situation by 2050s and 2070s. The highly suitable area would be downgraded to the medium or low suitable area to significantly reduce or even disappear, and the distribution center of P. scapiflorum tended to migrate to the westward and higher altitudes. 【Conclusion】 Study results are an important reference for the conservation, sustainable development, and utilization of wild resources and artificial cultivation of P. scapiflorum.

Key words: wild plant resources, Pegaeophyton scapiflorum, maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model, the potential distribution, Qihai-Xizang Plateau

CLC Number:

S718

LI Ruilan, FAN Jinya, ZHAO Qian, LI Tingju, WANG Chenghui, DING Rong, GU Rui, ZHONG Shihong. Estimation of habitat suitability and climatic distribution change of Pegaeophyton scapiflorum based on the MaxEnt model[J]. JOURNAL OF NANJING FORESTRY UNIVERSITY, 2024, 48(5): 173-180.

Figures/Tables 7

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编号 No.	地点 site	纬度(N) latitude	经度(E) longitude	海拔/m altitude	生境 habitat
A	青海称多县清水河镇	34°07'41.13″	97°39'42.45″	4 752	山坡、草甸、碎石滩、溪流(浅流水)
B	青海玛沁县下大武乡	34°53'26.69″	99°26'45.57″	4 446	山坡、碎石滩、浅流水、石隙
C	青海久治县雪山乡	34°34'38.24″	99°26'53.99″	4 704	山坡、碎石滩、干涸河床
D1&D2	青海玉树市格拉山	32°34'34.01″	97°12'39.70″	4 765	山坡、干涸河床、溪流、石隙
E	西藏山南市桑日县	29°36'0.04″	92°24'15.39″	4 627	山坡、溪流、流水滩、石隙
F	西藏当雄县纳木湖乡	30°40'14.33″	91°05'01.99″	5 115	山坡、碎石滩、干涸河床
G	西藏林芝市鲁朗镇色季拉山	29°36'34.56″	94°39'21.10″	4 478	山坡、溪流
H	四川阿坝州莲保叶则	33°03'49.05″	101°08'50.64″	4 292	多石浅水流、草甸、石隙
I	四川甘孜州乡城县格鲁柯	29°07'51.24″	100°03'05.76″	4 638	山坡、高山草甸、溪流石隙
J	云南德钦县岭乡永支村	28°05'38.38″	98°45'34.89″	—	山腰小溪溪水边、石隙

环境因子 environmental factor variables	变量描述 variable description	贡献率/% percent contribution	累积贡献率/% cumulative contribution rate	置换重要值 permutation importance
dem	海拔/m	60.2	60.2	42.3
bio_3	等温性(bio_2/bio_7 ×100)	17.9	78.1	27.7
bio_12	年均降水量/mm	8.3	86.4	5.2
geomor	地貌	3.8	90.2	9.3
bio_6	最冷月最低温/℃	3.0	93.2	6.7
srad_07	7月太阳辐射/(kJ·m^-2·d^-1)	2.8	96.0	2.1
soil_types	土壤类型	2.2	98.2	2.3
bio_17	最干季度降水量/mm	1.8	100.0	4.4

Estimation of habitat suitability and climatic distribution change of Pegaeophyton scapiflorum based on the MaxEnt model

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