Effects of extreme climate on the distribution and potential habitat of Hyphantria cunea in China

doi:10.12302/j.issn.1000-2006.202212010

JOURNAL OF NANJING FORESTRY UNIVERSITY ›› 2024, Vol. 48 ›› Issue (5): 197-203.doi: 10.12302/j.issn.1000-2006.202212010

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Effects of extreme climate on the distribution and potential habitat of Hyphantria cunea in China

XUE Mingyu¹(), HAO Dejun¹^,^*(), ZHAO Xudong¹, GENG Yishu¹, HU Tianyi¹, XIE Chunxia²

1. Co-Innovation Center for Sustainable Forestry in Southern China, College of Forestry and Grassland, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing 210037, China
2. Jiangsu Academy of Forestry, Nanjing 211153, China

Received:2022-12-25 Revised:2023-04-27 Online:2024-09-30 Published:2024-10-03
Contact: HAO Dejun E-mail:xdfxxmy@126.com;dejunhao@163.com

Abstract

Abstract:

【Objective】This study aims to predict the potential habitat of Hyphantria cunea under extreme climate conditions in China. 【Method】The occurrence data of H. cunea were obtained. Contemporary and future bioclimatic variables and extreme climate index data were processed using ArcGIS and DIVA-GIS. Environmental variables with low correlation coefficients and high contribution rates were selected. These variables were input into MaxEnt to calculate the potential habitats of H. cunea for the contemporary period, 2021 to 2040, 2041 to 2060, and 2061 to 2080. The spatial changes in the habitats were expressed by the relative positions of the centroids of the habitats. 【Result】The maximum daily precipitation, warm spell duration index, percentage of nights when the minimum temperature is below the 10th percentile, and mean temperature of the wettest quarter were important variables affecting the distribution of H. cunea. The potential habitat of H. cunea was currently mainly distributed in eastern, northern, and northeastern China, as well as the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. In the future, H. cunea might spread to southwest China, reaching Sichuan and Chongqing, with scattered distributions in Guangdong and Guangxi. 【Conclusion】The extreme precipitation is an important factor affecting the distribution of H. cunea. H. cunea is adapted to areas with stable climates. Predictions based on the extreme climate index indicate a risk that H. cunea will spread to southwest China in the future.

Key words: Hyphantria cunea, MaxEnt, potential habitat, extreme climate, spatial distribution, climate scenarios

CLC Number:

S763

XUE Mingyu, HAO Dejun, ZHAO Xudong, GENG Yishu, HU Tianyi, XIE Chunxia. Effects of extreme climate on the distribution and potential habitat of Hyphantria cunea in China[J]. JOURNAL OF NANJING FORESTRY UNIVERSITY, 2024, 48(5): 197-203.

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变量 variable	定义 definition	变量 variable	定义 defination	变量 variable	定义 definition
TX10p	冷昼日数占比/%	Rx5day	最大5日降水量/mm	SDII	日降水强度/mm
TN10p	冷夜日数占比/%	TXx	年最大日最高气温/℃	TR	热夜日数
CSDI	冷日持续指数/d	TXn	年最小日最高气温/℃	R95p	强降水量/mm
CDD	连续干燥日数	TNx	年最大日最低气温/℃	TX90p	暖昼日数占比/%
CWD	连续湿润日数	TNn	年最小日最低气温/℃	TN90p	暖夜日数占比/%
DTR	气温日较差/℃	R1mm	湿润日数	WSDI	暖日持续指数
R99p	极端强降水量/mm	SU	夏季日数	ID	冰冻日数
FD	霜冻日数	PRCPTOT	总降水量/mm	Rx1day	日最大降水量/mm
GSL	生长期日数	R20mm	极端大雨日数	R10mm	大雨日数

环境变量 variable	定义 definition	贡献率/% contribution	置换重要性/% importance
日最大降水量(Rx1day)/mm maximum daily precipitation	单日最大降水量 maximum daily precipitation of a month	39.6	16.1
冷夜日数占比(TN10p)/% percentage of cold nights	日最低气温<10%分位值的日数所占百分比 percentage of days when minimum air temperature < 10th percentile	23.5	22.2
暖日持续指数(WSDI)/d warm spell duration index	1年内至少6日最高气温> 90%分位值的连续日数 days with at least 6 consecutive days when maximum air temperature >90 th percentile	16.2	25.2
暖昼日数占比(TX90p)/% percentage of warm days	日最高气温>90%分位值的日数所占百分比 percentage of days when daily maximum air temperature > 90th percentile	9.5	5.7
暖夜日数占比(TN90p)/% percentage of warm nights	日最低气温>90%分位值的日数所占百分比 percentage of days when daily minimum air temperature >90th percentile	5.5	5.7
最湿季度平均气温(bio_8)/℃ mean air temperature of wettest quarter	降水最多季度的平均气温 mean air temperature of season with the highest mean precipitation	5.2	22.3
最热月份最高气温(bio_5)/℃ maximum temperature of warmest month	月均温最高月份的最高气温 maximum air temperature of month with highest mean air temperature	0.5	2.9

Effects of extreme climate on the distribution and potential habitat of Hyphantria cunea in China

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