Temporal and spatial variation and prediction of water yield in Wuxi City by coupling InVEST and FLUS models

doi:10.12302/j.issn.1000-2006.202312001

JOURNAL OF NANJING FORESTRY UNIVERSITY ›› 2025, Vol. 49 ›› Issue (3): 119-128.doi: 10.12302/j.issn.1000-2006.202312001

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Temporal and spatial variation and prediction of water yield in Wuxi City by coupling InVEST and FLUS models

BAO Yitao¹^,²(), WU Chaoming³, ZHU Li³, YANG Rui³, GE Yu³, LIU Ziqiang¹^,²^,^*()

1. Co-Innovation Center for Sustainable Forestry in Southern China, Jiangsu Province Key Laboratory of Soil and Water Conservation and Ecological Restoration, College of Forestry and Grassland, College of Water and Soil Coservation, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing 210037, China
2. Breeding Base for State Key Laboratory of Land Degradation and Ecological Restoration in Northwestern China, Key Laboratory of Restoration and Reconstruction of Degraded Ecosystems in Northwestern China of Ministry of Education, Ningxia University, Yinchuan 750021, China
3. Wuxi Branch of Jiangsu Province Hydrology and Water Resources Investigation Bureau, Wuxi 214031, China

Received:2023-12-01 Accepted:2024-02-09 Online:2025-05-30 Published:2025-05-27
Contact: LIU Ziqiang E-mail:839269153@qq.com;liuzistrong@njfu.edu.cn

Abstract

Abstract:

【Objective】Forecasting future land use changes under different scenarios in Wuxi City and studying the spatial and temporal variations in water yield services and their driving factors are crucial for local ecological and socio-economic sustainability. 【Method】The FLUS and InVEST models were used to predict future land use changes based on historical trends. The spatial and temporal variations in water yield services in Wuxi City from 1990 to 2030 were analyzed, and scenario analysis was employed to identify the main factors influencing water yield.【Result】The primary historical land use change in Wuxi had been the conversion of cultivated land to developed land. During the study period, the area of cultivated land decreased by 32.69%, while developed land increased by 217.25%. The historical annual average water yield in Wuxi was 2.552 × 10⁹ m³, with a depth of 612.34 mm. Water yield varied with rainfall and evapotranspiration, initially decreasing and then increasing. Spatially,the high-value areas of water production were concentrated in the southwestern forest and northeastern grassland areas, while the low value areas were concentrated in the central water area. During the four time periods of 1990 to 2000, 1990 to 2010, 1990 to 2020, and 2020 to 2030, the changes in water yield were influenced by land use transfer and changes in precipitation. These two factors contributed to the water yield of the four time periods by -10.00% and 110.00%, 12.50% and 87.50%, 1.00% and 99.00%, 5.46% and 94.54%, respectively. Precipitation is the main factor affecting changes in water yield. 【Conclusion】Scenario analysis results indicate that changes in rainfall have a more significant impact on water yield than changes in land use. Rainfall is the primary driver of variations in water yield, providing a scientific basis for water allocation in the study area.

Key words: InVEST model, FLUS model, water yield, driving factors, land use, Wuxi City

CLC Number:

Q148
S757

BAO Yitao, WU Chaoming, ZHU Li, YANG Rui, GE Yu, LIU Ziqiang. Temporal and spatial variation and prediction of water yield in Wuxi City by coupling InVEST and FLUS models[J]. JOURNAL OF NANJING FORESTRY UNIVERSITY, 2025, 49(3): 119-128.

Figures/Tables 9

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情景设置 scenario setting	耕地 crop land	林地 forest land	草地 grass land	水域 water- body	发展用地 development land	未利用土地 unused land
自然发展 natural development	0.75	0.55	0.40	0.15	0.90	0.10
自然保护 natural protection	0.20	1.00	0.90	0.60	0.40	0.10
经济增长 economic growth	0.90	0.40	0.30	0.10	1.00	0.10

情景 scenario	土地利用与气候设置 land use and climate settings	产水体积/×10⁹ m³ water yield volume	产水体积变化/×10⁸ m³ change of water yield volume
基准 baseline	2020年土地利用及气候	3.842 42
降水量改变 precipitation change	1990年降水量	2.733 74	-11.086 8
	2000年降水量	2.433 91	-14.085 1
	2010年降水量	2.624 00	-12.184 2
潜在蒸散发改变 potential evapotranspiration change	1990年潜在蒸散发	3.570 69	-2.717 3
	2000年潜在蒸散发	3.622 26	-2.201 6
	2010年潜在蒸散发	3.614 38	-2.280 4
土地利用改变 land use change	1990年土地利用	3.511 30	-3.311 2
	2000年土地利用	3.539 25	-3.031 7
	2010年土地利用	3.566 33	-2.760 9
2030年未来情景 future scenario for 2030	自然发展	3.050 87	-7.915 5
	自然保护	3.090 14	-7.522 8
	经济发展	3.026 72	-8.157 0

Temporal and spatial variation and prediction of water yield in Wuxi City by coupling InVEST and FLUS models

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