Prediction model construction of diameter distribution of Larix principis-rupprechtii plantation

ZHOU Zeyu, YANG Raohua, ZHANG Yuzhen, HUANG Xuanrui, ZHANG Zhidong, WANG Dongzhi, LI Dayong

JOURNAL OF NANJING FORESTRY UNIVERSITY ›› 2020, Vol. 44 ›› Issue (2) : 117-124.

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南京林业大学学报（自然科学版）
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JOURNAL OF NANJING FORESTRY UNIVERSITY ›› 2020, Vol. 44 ›› Issue (2) : 117-124. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-2006.201812012

Prediction model construction of diameter distribution of Larix principis-rupprechtii plantation

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Abstract

【Objective】 Based on different diameter distribution prediction models(Weibull distribution, Gamma distribution, Lognormal distribution), linear mixed-effects model including the main stand factors are constructed to help to reflect the response of diameter distribution to stand dynamics. 【Method】 Using the survey data of typical Larix principis-rupprechtii plantation, the model parameters were estimated by using the Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE), and the adaptability of the established model was evaluated via K-S (Kolmogorov-Smirnov)test, C-V (Cramer-von Mises) test, and A-D (Anderson-Darling) test. Based on the optimal model, a linear mixed-effects model of diameter distribution of Larix principis-rupprechtii plantation was constructed. 【Result】 The optimal model for the diameter distribution ofLarix principis-rupprechtii plantation was the 3-parameter Weibull distribution. Based on the optimal model, a linear mixed-effect model with inputs of stand dominant height, stand basal area and logarithmic density was constructed and the mixed-effect model had the best fitting result as the variance-covariance structure of random-effect and the error term variance-covariance structure was both Diagonal matrix UN(1). The R 2 of linear mixed-effect model of Weibull distribution of parameter a, b, and c were estimated at 0.895, 0.888, and 0.801 respectively. The MSE were at 5.365, 1.724, 1.151 and RMSE were at 2.316, 1.313, 1.073. the fitting result was relatively accurate. 【Conclusion】 Linear mixed-effects model has the capability to accurately predict stand diameter distribution. The model can provide theoretical basis and technical parameters for accurately predicting the diameter distributions ofLarix principis-rupprechtii plantation.

Key words

Larix principis-rupprechtii / dynamic diameter distribution model / Maximum Likelihood Estimation(MLE) / linear mixed-effect model

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ZHOU Zeyu , YANG Raohua , ZHANG Yuzhen , et al . Prediction model construction of diameter distribution of Larix principis-rupprechtii plantation[J]. JOURNAL OF NANJING FORESTRY UNIVERSITY. 2020, 44(2): 117-124 https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1000-2006.201812012

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