JOURNAL OF NANJING FORESTRY UNIVERSITY ›› 2013, Vol. 37 ›› Issue (06): 37-40.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-2006.2013.06.008

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Prediction of potential distribution of Rhyacionia leptotubula based on Maxent ecological niche model in Yunnan province

LI Qinwen1,2,LI Yonghe2,LIU Jianhong2,YANG Song2,MA Mingyou3,SHE Guanghui1*   

  1. 1.College of Forest Resources and Environment,Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing 210037,China;
    2. Key Laboratory of Forest Disaster Warning and Control in Yunnan Province,Southwest Forestry University, Kunming 650224,China;
    3.Qijiang Distric
  • Online:2013-12-18 Published:2013-12-18

Abstract: Distributional data of Rhyacionia leptotubula were derived from wide field surveys of 177 sample sites in Northeastern Yunnan in two consecutive years. Ecological niche modelling technique, Maxent was used to predict potential distribution of Rhyacionia leptotubula based on associations between known occurrence records and a set of environmental variables. The results showed that the suitable areas for Rhyacionia leptotubula infestations covered northeastern Yunnan, northwestern Yunnan, south Sichuan, northwestern Guizhou province. The fit for the model measured by AUC was high, with value of 0.998 for the training data and 0.997 for the test data, indicating the high level of discriminatory power for the Maxent. A jackknife test in Maxent indicated that altitude with the highest gain value was the most important environmental variable.

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