The impact of climate change on forest and grassland fires and future trends in Hulunbuir City, Inner Mongolia

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-2006.201904049

JOURNAL OF NANJING FORESTRY UNIVERSITY ›› 2020, Vol. 44 ›› Issue (5): 222-230.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-2006.201904049

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The impact of climate change on forest and grassland fires and future trends in Hulunbuir City, Inner Mongolia

ZHANG Heng¹(), ZHANG Qiuliang¹^,^*(), YUE Yang¹^,², SONG Ximing³, DAI Haiyan⁴, YI Bole¹

1. College of Forestry, Inner Mongolia Agricultural University, Hohhot 010019, China
2. College of Forestry, Northeast Forestry University, Harbin 150040, China
3. Inner Mongolia Daxing’anling Forestry Science and Technology Research Institute,Yakeshi 022150, China;
4. Inner Mongolia Ecological and Agricultural Meteorological Center, Hohhot 010051, China

Received:2019-04-22 Revised:2020-04-20 Online:2020-10-30 Published:2020-10-30
Contact: ZHANG Qiuliang E-mail:zhangheng_nefu@126.com;18686028468@163.com

Abstract

Abstract:

【Objective】Climate warming is an important factor in the increase in number and area of forest and grassland fires. The Hulunbuir Grassland is an important ecological protection barrier in northern China, and occurs in a region significantly affected by climate change. The study of climate change and forest and grassland fires in Hulunbuir City provides a theoretical basis for the region to cope with meteorological disasters and prepare for forest and grassland fire prevention.【Method】Using R/S analysis and SPEI index analysis, meteorological data from 1961-2018 for Hulunbuir City (Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region) were analyzed to determine past and future trends and the degree of dryness and wetness. By analyzing Hulunbuir City forest and grassland fire data from 1990-2018, future fire trends were identified. The results of the analyses (meteorological factors and drought conditions) were combined with the forest and grassland fire data for Hulunbuir City. 【Result】① Between 1961 and 2018, in Hulunbuir City, the temperature and precipitation increased, whereas the relative humidity and number of sunshine hours decreased. Future temperature change trends are likely to reflect the past but trends in precipitation, relative humidity and sunshine hours are likely to be opposite to the past. Drought has continued in Hulunbuir City since 2011 and analysis of 24 of data shows that the drought is most likely to continue in the future. ② The number and burn area of forest fires showed an upward trend, 1 times/a and 318.38 hm ²/a, respectively whereas the number and burn area of grassland fires showed a downward trend, 0.41 time/a and 12 486 hm ²/a, respectively. ③ During the growing season, both forest and grassland fires are negatively correlated with temperature and precipitation. Grassland fires are positively correlated with relative humidity and sunshine hours whereas forest fires are negatively correlated with these two factors. ④ The number and burn area of forest and grassland fires shows a high degree of fit with the segment time scale SPEI, and the fitted curve was a quadratic function. 【Conclusion】This study predicts that the degree of drought in Hulunbuir will continue in the future. The occurrence of forest and grassland fires has a high fit with meteorological factors. It is suggested that the local authorities concerned formulate reasonable protective measures on the basis of understanding local climate change.

Key words: climate change, forest grassland fires, R/S analysis, standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), future trend, Hulunbuir, Inner Mongolia

CLC Number:

S762

ZHANG Heng, ZHANG Qiuliang, YUE Yang, SONG Ximing, DAI Haiyan, YI Bole. The impact of climate change on forest and grassland fires and future trends in Hulunbuir City, Inner Mongolia[J]. JOURNAL OF NANJING FORESTRY UNIVERSITY, 2020, 44(5): 222-230.

Figures/Tables 4

Fig.1

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Table 1

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指标 index	森林火灾 forest fires		草原火灾 grassland fires
指标 index	火灾次数 number of fires	过火面积 burned area	火灾次数 number of fires	过火面积 burned area
气温 temperature	6^*、9^、 12^*		7^、8^、 9^**	9^*、12^
降水量 precipitation	2^*、11^	2^、11^*	3^*	8^**
相对湿度 relative humidity	6^、8^、 9^*、10^	5^**	5^、6^、 8^、9^	1^、6^、 8^、9^、 10^、12^
日照时间 sunshine hours	5^**	1^、5^*	3^、5^、 10^*	5^**

The impact of climate change on forest and grassland fires and future trends in Hulunbuir City, Inner Mongolia

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