Prediction of potential suitable areas of Cerasus discoidea in China based on the MaxEnt model

doi:10.12302/j.issn.1000-2006.202108014

JOURNAL OF NANJING FORESTRY UNIVERSITY ›› 2023, Vol. 47 ›› Issue (4): 131-138.doi: 10.12302/j.issn.1000-2006.202108014

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Prediction of potential suitable areas of Cerasus discoidea in China based on the MaxEnt model

YANG Hong(), DONG Jingjing, WU Tong, ZHOU Huajin, CHEN Jie, LI Meng, WANG Xianrong, YI Xiangui()

Co-Innovation Center for Sustainable Forestry in Southern China,College of Biology and the Environment, Cerasus Research Center,Nanjing Forestry University,Nanjing 210037,China

Received:2021-08-09 Revised:2022-02-06 Online:2023-07-30 Published:2023-07-20

1. .zip(11230KB)

Abstract

Abstract:

【Objective】Based on Cerasus discoidea of contemporary (1970-2000) suitable areas and the adaptive region of the future (2050s, 2070s) under climate change (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), these results provided a reference for the protection and utilization of C. discoidea germplasm resources. 【Method】Based on 19 climate variables and three topographic factors, combined with 52 valid specimens, the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model and Arc-GIS software were used to analyze and predict the main factors and their potential distribution areas of this species. 【Result】Under current environmental conditions, the potentially suitable areas for C. discoidea are mainly distributed in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. The main climatic factors affecting its distribution were precipitation of the driest quarter (bio17), minimum temperature of the coldest month (bio6), temperature seasonality (bio4), and slope (slo). In the future climate (BCC-CSM1.1), the total suitable area of species will decreased, however, in the 2050s, under moderate greenhouse gas emission conditions (RCP4.5), the total suitable area of species will reach a maximum of 7.49×10⁵ km². However, under the conditions of low (RCP2.6) and moderate (RCP4.5) greenhouse gas emissions in the 2050s and the 2070s, the moderately suitable areas remained unchanged. 【Conclusion】The suitable distribution area of C. discoidea is mainly in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, and the low mountainous areas of Jiangxi, Anhui, Hubei, Jiangsu and Zhejiang Provinces are the core areas of this germplasm resources distribution.

Key words: Cerasus discoidea, suitable area, MaxEnt model

CLC Number:

S718

YANG Hong, DONG Jingjing, WU Tong, ZHOU Huajin, CHEN Jie, LI Meng, WANG Xianrong, YI Xiangui. Prediction of potential suitable areas of Cerasus discoidea in China based on the MaxEnt model[J]. JOURNAL OF NANJING FORESTRY UNIVERSITY, 2023, 47(4): 131-138.

Figures/Tables 7

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环境因子 environment factor	代码 variable code	变量 variable name	贡献率/% contribution rate	重要性/% significance	环境因子 environment factor	代码 variable code	变量 variable name	贡献率/% contribution rate	重要性/% significance
气候因子 climatic factor	bio1	年均气温	0	0	气候因子 climatic factor	bio12	年降水量	0	0
	bio2	昼夜温差均值	0	0		bio13	最湿月降水量	0	0
	bio3	等温性	0	0		bio14	最干月降水量	0	0
	bio4^*	季节性温度变化	5.7	3.8		bio15	降水变异系数	0	0
	bio5	最暖月最高温	0	0		bio16	最湿润季降水量	0	0
	bio6^*	最冷月最低温	9.4	41.9		bio17^*	最干季降水量	73.4	2
	bio7	气温年较差	0	0		bio18	最暖季降水量	0	0
	bio8	最湿润季均温	0	0		bio19^*	最冷季降水量	3.6	48.1
	bio9^*	最干季均温	2.6	30.2	地形因子 topographic factor	alt	海拔	0	0
	bio10	最暖季均温	0	0		asp	坡向	0	0
	bio11	最冷季均温	0	0		slo^*	坡度	5.3	1

情景及年代 scenario and era		总适生区 total suitable area		高度适生区 highly suitable area		中度适生区 moderate suitable area		低度适生区 low suitable area
情景及年代 scenario and era		面积/ ×10⁵ km² area	占比/% percentage	面积/ ×10⁵ km² area	占比/% percentage	面积/ ×10⁵ km² area	占比/% percentage	面积/ ×10⁵ km² area	占比/% percentage
当代current		7.40	—	1.06	—	2.21	—	4.13	—
RCP2.6	2050s	7.01	94.73	1.25	117.92	2.40	108.60	3.36	81.36
	2070s	7.20	97.30	1.06	100.00	2.40	108.60	3.74	90.56
RCP4.5	2050s	7.49	101.22	1.54	145.28	2.40	108.60	3.55	85.60
	2070s	7.30	98.65	1.25	117.92	2.40	108.60	3.65	88.38
RCP8.5	2050s	6.91	93.38	1.25	117.92	2.11	95.48	3.55	85.60
	2070s	6.91	93.38	1.34	126.42	2.02	91.40	3.55	85.60

Prediction of potential suitable areas of Cerasus discoidea in China based on the MaxEnt model

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