The export efficiency and potential capacity of China’s forest products to RCEP member countries

doi:10.12302/j.issn.1000-2006.202208058

JOURNAL OF NANJING FORESTRY UNIVERSITY ›› 2024, Vol. 48 ›› Issue (1): 237-247.doi: 10.12302/j.issn.1000-2006.202208058

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The export efficiency and potential capacity of China’s forest products to RCEP member countries

PAN Lei¹^,²(), XIONG Lichun¹^,³, YAO Yuchen¹, LIANG Zhao⁴, ZHU Zhen¹^,³^,^*()

1. School of Economics and Management,Zhejiang Agriculture and Forestry University,Hangzhou 311300
2. Farmland Construction Center of Songyang County of Zhejiang Province, Songyang 323400,China
3. Research Academy for Rural Revitalization of Zhejiang, Zhejiang Agriculture and Forestry University, Hangzhou 311300, China
4. Cultural Tourism Development Center of Xiangxi Town, Songyang County, Songyang 323400,China

Received:2022-08-25 Revised:2022-09-20 Online:2024-01-30 Published:2024-01-24
Contact: ZHU Zhen E-mail:563465362@qq.com;zhuzhen8149278@126.com

Abstract

Abstract:

【Objective】 To discuss China’s export efficiency and potential capacity of forest products to Regional Comprehensive Econoroic Partnership(RCEP) member countries, it is important to identify the future expansion of China’s forest product exports to other RCEP member countries and to optimize the export market and structure of China’s forest products. 【Method】 Based on China’s forest product export data to RCEP member countries from 2004 to 2018, the stochastic frontier gravity model was used to analyze China’s forest product export efficiency to RCEP member countries and forecast the potential export capacity combined with tariff reduction scenarios. 【Result】 Trade barriers, transportation and economic policies have negative impacts on the export efficiency of forest products in China. With the establishment of RCEP, RCEP countries will further occupy the export market of China’s forest products, which will help expand China’s export of forest products to developing countries. 【Conclusion】RCEP will further adjust and optimize the export structure of forest products in China. Differentiated policies should be designed for forest products to accelerate the reduction of trade barriers among RCEP countries, advance negotiations with RCEP countries on forest product tariff reduction, and enhance the competitiveness and added value of paper products by improving innovation capabilities.

Key words: Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership(RCEP), export efficiency, potential capacity of exportation, exportation structure, tariff concession, forest products trade

CLC Number:

F326

PAN Lei, XIONG Lichun, YAO Yuchen, LIANG Zhao, ZHU Zhen. The export efficiency and potential capacity of China’s forest products to RCEP member countries[J]. JOURNAL OF NANJING FORESTRY UNIVERSITY, 2024, 48(1): 237-247.

Figures/Tables 8

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变量 variable	变量含义 meaning of variable	理论说明 theoretical explanation
T_E,_ijt	贸易效率
G_it	中国GDP总量	出口国经济水平越高,其林产品生产能力越大,越能促进出口;进口国经济水平越高,其对林产品的需求量越大,越能促进进口^[14]
G_jt	各成员国GDP总量
P_it	中国人口总量	人口的增长将拉动需求,提高国际贸易发展的潜力;同时,也会使国内劳动分工程度加深,抑制了国际贸易的发展^[26]
P_jt	各成员国人口总量
D_ijt	两国距离	两国距离越远,所要消耗的运输成本越大^[3]
T_AF,_jt	平均关税率	表示关税壁垒,进口国关税壁垒越高,出口国出口阻力越大^[14]
T_IM,_jt	清关效率	表示非关税壁垒,进口国非关税壁垒越小,通关能力越强,出口国出口阻力越小^[24]
S_HP,_jt	班轮运输指数	表示进口国海洋航运能力,进口国航运能力越强,出口国出口阻力越小^[14]
T_P,_jt	货运吞吐量	表示进口国海运物流能力,物流能力越强,出口国出口阻力越小^[27]
E_F,_jt	经济自由度	表示进口国政策干预本国经济的程度,进口国经济环境越自由,出口国出口阻力越小^[28]
E_R,_jt	本币兑换美元汇率	表示进口国的汇率政策,进口国本币比值越高越会抑制出口,会促进进口国的进口^[3]
G_RTH,_jt	GDP增长率	表示进口国的宏观政策导向以及总体经济环境^[25]

产品 product	原假设 null hypothesis	约束模型 constraint model	非约束模型 unconstrained model	LR统计量 LR statistic	P	检验结果 inspection results
人造板 board products	贸易非效率不存在	-276.024 0	-217.333 9	117.38	<0.001	拒绝原假设
	贸易非效率不变化	-217.333 9	-169.524 7	95.62	<0.001	拒绝原假设
木制品 wood products	贸易非效率不存在	-235.758 4	-181.109 4	109.30	<0.001	拒绝原假设
	贸易非效率不变化	-181.109 4	-137.020 7	88.18	<0.001	拒绝原假设
木家具 wood furniture	贸易非效率不存在	-231.803 2	-218.278 9	27.05	<0.001	拒绝原假设
	贸易非效率不变化	-218.278 9	-218.229 5	0.10	0.753	接受原假设
纸和纸制品 paper and paper products	贸易非效率不存在	-119.616 1	-43.979 1	151.27	<0.001	拒绝原假设
	贸易非效率不变化	-43.979 1	-26.076 0	35.81	<0.001	拒绝原假设

变量 variable	人造板 board product		木制品 wood product		木家具 wood furniture		纸和纸制品 paper and paper products
变量 variable	系数	P	系数	P	系数	P	系数	P
G_it	0.575	0.189	-0.759^*	0.090	2.671^***	<0.001	0.513^***	0.003
G_jt	0.467^***	<0.001	1.180^***	<0.001	0.872^***	<0.001	0.465^***	<0.001
P_it	-26.840^*	0.056	17.635	0.233	-46.974^***	0.001	-5.481	0.346
P_jt	0.356^***	0.001	-0.001	0.994	-0.353^***	0.010	0.396^***	<0.001
D_ijt	-0.428^***	<0.001	-0.388^***	0.003	0.112	0.490	-0.225^***	<0.001
T_AF,_jt	0.053^***	0.001	-0.009	0.593	-0.010	0.641	0.035^***	<0.001
T_IM,_j_t	0.002	0.694	0.026	0.448	-0.012^**	0.014	0.002	0.468
S_HP,_jt	-4.869^***	<0.001	-6.526^***	<0.001	-0.947	0.341	-1.384^***	<0.001
T_P,_j	0.311	0.654	-0.591	0.479	0.356	0.696	-1.101^***	<0.001
E_F,_jt	-0.378^***	<0.001	-0.118^*	0.064	-0.104^*	0.052	-0.035^*	0.083
E_R,_jt	-0.134^***	<0.001	-0.224^***	<0.001	0.010	0.784	0.048^**	0.044
G_RTH,_jt	0.031	0.524	0.070	0.147	0.036	0.605	-0.012	0.555
C_ons(常数)	77.546^**	0.030	-37.276	0.317	133.665^***	<0.001	26.844^*	0.064
η	2.175^**	0.047	-0.771	0.901	—	—	1.438^***	0.001
γ	0.942	—	0.972	—	0.981	—	0.837	—

国家发展阶段 stage of national development	国家 country	基础税率/% base tax rate	预期关税率/% expected tariff rate
国家发展阶段 stage of national development	国家 country	基础税率/% base tax rate	第5年 5th year	第10年 10th year	第20年 20th year
发达国家 developed country	澳大利亚	2.80	0.76	0.50	0.09
	日本	3.17	2.46	1.79	1.28
	韩国	11.49	5.04	3.32	2.80
	新西兰	2.35	1.35	0.72	0.32
	新加坡	0.08	0.00	0.00	0.00
发展中国家 developing country	泰国	16.93	11.28	5.63	3.09
	文莱	0.08	0.06	0.03	0.00
	柬埔寨	14.06	10.77	7.01	2.34
	印度尼西亚	7.25	1.80	0.92	0.33
	马来西亚	17.53	14.20	8.48	5.69
	缅甸	5.88	3.94	3.33	1.77
	菲律宾	6.97	2.00	1.56	0.70
	越南	10.00	4.31	2.39	1.84

国家发展阶段 stage of national development	国家 country	林产品出口增长率/% growth rate of forest product exports
国家发展阶段 stage of national development	国家 country	第5年 5th year	第10年 10th year	第20年 20th year	第5年 5th year	第10年 10th year	第20年 20th year	第5年 5th year	第10年 10th year	第20年 20th year
发达国家 developed country	澳大利亚	7.36	8.34	9.89	5.66	6.41	7.59	7.01	7.94	9.42
	日本	7.71	15.15	20.92	1.94	3.80	5.24	2.39	4.69	6.48
	韩国	36.30	47.28	50.71	19.02	24.68	26.44	23.90	31.19	33.48
	新加坡	0.22	0.22	0.22	0.22	0.22	0.22	0.27	0.27	0.27
	新西兰	3.33	5.48	6.87	2.74	4.50	5.63	3.38	5.57	6.98
发展中国家 developing country	泰国	22.17	48.83	62.52	16.48	35.68	45.31	20.65	45.57	58.39
	文莱	0.09	0.22	0.36	0.05	0.14	0.22	0.07	0.17	0.27
	柬埔寨	3.16	7.21	12.98	9.29	20.97	37.22	11.55	26.40	47.61
	印度尼西亚	74.11	87.34	96.42	15.85	18.64	20.54	19.85	23.41	25.85
	马来西亚	4.16	12.43	17.06	9.41	27.68	37.67	11.70	35.08	48.20
	缅甸	6.73	8.93	14.78	5.38	7.13	11.74	6.66	8.84	14.63
	菲律宾	13.60	14.92	17.54	14.36	15.73	18.45	17.96	19.69	23.16
	越南	19.49	26.85	29.03	16.61	22.81	24.65	20.81	28.77	31.15
出口发达国家占比/% exporting developed countries accounted		61.00	60.28	59.93	75.20	74.65	74.46	72.24	71.20	70.61
出口发展中国家占比/% exporting developing countries accounted		39.00	39.72	40.07	24.80	25.35	25.54	27.76	28.80	29.39
总体出口增长率/% overall export growth rate		14.97	21.74	25.79	8.16	11.53	13.26	9.30	13.64	16.36

The export efficiency and potential capacity of China’s forest products to RCEP member countries

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