Abstract:

【Objective】The middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River basin are the most important wintering habitats for the Grus leucogeranus. However, in recent years, the distribution of suitable habitats for the G. leucogeranus in this area has been greatly altered by the combined effects of climate change and various other factors. Therefore, conducting research on the habitat suitability of G. leucogeranus in this area is of great significance for the protection and scientific management of this endangered species.【Method】In this study, based on the changes in the distribution of suitable areas of the G. leucogeranus wintering habitat in China, we used the Maximum Entropy Model (MaxEnt) to predict the potential suitable areas of the G. leucogeranus wintering habitat. The prediction was based on the G. leucogeranus distribution points, vegetation, topography, observed air temperature, precipitation, Global Climate Models (GCMs) data, and other various environmental factors.【Result】(1) The MaxEnt model proved highly effective in predicting the distribution of suitable habitats and assessing climate suitability for G. leucogeranus in their wintering grounds, with an AUC value of 0.978. The most influential environmental factors affecting the distribution of suitable habitat for G. leucogeranus were elevation, precipitation during the wettest month, slope, and NDVI. (2) The contemporary suitable habitat of the G. leucogeranus mainly distributed in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, with the the Poyang Lake being the most important high suitable area for the species. The medium and low suitable areas also mainly distributed around the the Poyang Lake. In addition, low suitable areas were found in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, along the coast of the Bohai Bay, and in the Haihe River, the Liaohe River, the Nenjiang, and the Songhua River basins. (3) Global climate model prediction results showed predictions indicate that the next 20 years, although the low suitable areas for G. leucogeranus during wintering is on the rise, the medium and high suitable areas generally decreasing. Among them, compared to the contemporary period, the medium suitable living area are projected to shrink by 2 500 to 25 700 km², and the high suitable living area will shrink by 3 800 to 12 200 km².【Conclusion】Different greenhouse gas emission scenarios will have different varying impacts on the distribution of G. leucogeranus. In the context of global warming, the wintering habitat of G. leucogeranus may shrink significantly, which will pose a serious challenge to the conservation of this rare species, and we should strengthen the research on G. leucogeranus habitat in the context of climate change, to provide data support for the conservation of G. leucogeranus and the management of their habitats.

Key words: Grus leucogeranus, suitable habitat distribution, climate scenario, MaxEnt model, habitat, China