Abstract:

【Objective】Coniferous forests in southwest China are important biodiversity hotspots, but they are under significant threat from ongoing climatic changes. In this study we explored the predicted changes in habitat suitability for 12 key tree species.【Method】We used MaxEnt models to predict habitat suitability for 12 coniferous tree species that are currently present in southwest China. 【Result】The AUC values (receiver operating characteristics, area under curve) of all 12 species were more than 0.9, suggesting our results are highly supported. We found that the climatically suitable area of all species under representative concentration pathways scenario 4.5 in 2070 will increase greatly. For 9 of the 12 species (Abies fabri, Cephalotaxus fortunei, Cunninghamia lanceolata, Cupressus duclouxiana, Metasequoia glyptostroboides, Pinus yunnanensis, Fokienia hodginsii, Taxus wallichiana var. chinensis and Cupressus funebris), both the total climatically suitable area and the area of optimal climate will increase 11.1% and 412.8% than the current areal, respectively. ForPicea brachytyla and Cathaya argyrophylla, the total climatically suitable area will increase by 6.0% and 32.8%, respectively, but the area of optimal conditions will decrease ( P. brachytyla by -0.8%; C. argyrophylla by -3.5%). However, for Keteleeria evelyniana, both the total climatically suitable area and the area of optimal climate area will respectively decrease by 24.0% and 29.1%.【Conclusion】Overall, our models show that climate change is expected to increase the range of various widely distributed coniferous tree species. However, for specialized coniferous species like Picea brachytyla and Keteleeria evelyniana, there will be a range decrease as conditions change. We suggest that more attention be paid to specialized forest conifer species, particularly in relation to expected climatic changes.

Key words: coniferous tree, ecological suitable area, climate change, MaxEnt model, southwest China